Clik here to view.
If the stock market crashes, the Fed has failed
Markets are on edge waiting for the Fed to raise rates. Conventional wisdom holds that the Fed’s easy money policies have inflated a stock market bubble. When they take away the punch bowl of low...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The best- and worst-valued housing markets
In a previous post I looked at price-to-rent ratios in major markets. Like a PE ratio for stocks, price-to-rent ratio is a decent benchmark for judging whether housing markets are over or undervalued....
View ArticleClik here to view.
I’m sick of hearing about “easy money”
I’m going to keep it short today, but I’m getting sick of hearing about the Fed’s easy money. How is Fed policy easy, exactly? Let’s start with whether prices are rising too quickly, signalling an...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Hoping for a crash
I’ve written a few posts on how stocks are fairly valued, or how you might be waiting forever for a crash. I’ve been derided as a wishful thinker, someone ignoring the reality of high P/E ratios and...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Four graphs of Warren Buffett’s top bets
With $106 billion to stash away, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) depends on making good financial decisions. If you’re a value investor and are fishing for good ideas, you could certainly...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Five visualizations of Bend, OR half-marathon results
Yesterday I ran a half marathon in Bend, Oregon, so I’m going to keep it a little lighter. I trained a lot using this excellent free program from Hal Higdon. Because the results were posted in a nice...
View ArticleThe “hero” mother of Baltimore
Just a quick post today. I’m watching CNN, hearing a lot about the mother who started beating her child because he was participating in a riot. It doesn’t seem like there’s much debate around how great...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Not in a bubble, yet?
This article in the most recent issue of the Economist seems to agree with the point I’ve been making for a while now, that stocks are fairly valued. The author starts by saying that the 1990’s tech...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Do rent yields follow other returns?
A few weeks ago I put together a graph on 10-year treasury yields vs. S&P earnings yield. For those of you tired of hearing how stocks are overvalued, or in a “bubble”, you can take solace that...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Take cover in these interesting value plays
I’ve said stocks are fairly valued, and my expectation of long-term yields and current stock valuations still justify that analysis. But like in George Orwell’s Animal Farm, some stocks are more fairly...
View Article401K vs. Roth IRA: How Should You Save?
Have you thought about how you should direct your retirement savings? You should. There’s a variety of ways to save, and you should find the best way. For example, should you max out your 401K...
View ArticleWhat do markets say about Brexit?
The UK vote on Brexit presents some fascinating political questions. Will Scotland now leave the United Kingdom? Will Northern Irish Catholics tolerate border controls with the Republic of Ireland?...
View ArticleThe Great Trump Reflation?
When thinking about Trumpism, it’s hard to come upon a unifying theme. But here’s a shot: inflation. Every one of Trump’s domestic policies should raise prices. Let’s recap: Throwing 2-3 million...
View ArticleTrump won because he had a plan and Hillary did not
It’s fascinating to watch all the pundits debate why Hillary lost and Trump won. We hear about likability, trustworthiness, FBI letters, Wikileaks, etc. But at a very basic level, Trump had a plan and...
View ArticleTrump’s China Pivot: Brilliant or Disastrous?
Even though I voted against Donald Trump and think he could be dangerous for American democracy, I like to keep an open mind about his potential policy pivots. Bureaucratic thinking gets stuck in...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Murder in Chicago: Finding the Ferguson Effect in 10 Graphs
On August 9, 2014, Michael Brown was killed in Ferguson. Since that time, murder rates in some cities have spiked. Our current President has extrapolated a society in chaos from that spike. Indeed,...
View ArticleWhat is Faith in G-d?
I’ve struggled with faith my whole life. When I was younger I believed in G-d because it seemed like the only answer to why everything exists. However, growing up Catholic made me a little too neurotic...
View Article
